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"Artifacts," by Scott G. Ortman
Table 15. Summary of Bayesian Probability Density Analysis, Yellow Jacket Pueblo
<< SCROLL TABLE >>
A. Prior Probabilities (from composite probability density analysis of Yellow Jacket pottery data)
Architectural Block
Period
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500
2600
3200
3300
3400
Total Site
A.D. 1020–1060
.097
.104
.076
.081
.111
.118
.125
.078
.111
.092
.065
.046
.085
.044
.104
.077
.100
.094
.160
.179
.121
.043
.092
A.D. 1060–1100
.173
.135
.109
.098
.143
.147
.146
.089
.130
.112
.088
.063
.104
.074
.125
.086
.136
.137
.198
.217
.148
.064
.119
A.D. 1100–1140
.176
.151
.130
.122
.155
.161
.162
.116
.156
.122
.118
.089
.123
.108
.150
.106
.154
.150
.201
.217
.152
.076
.138
A.D. 1140–1180
.132
.138
.127
.134
.135
.145
.149
.131
.156
.126
.130
.108
.125
.128
.146
.118
.138
.136
.160
.163
.133
.083
.133
A.D. 1180–1225
.162
.169
.195
.197
.164
.162
.153
.193
.169
.195
.203
.211
.185
.228
.171
.198
.171
.175
.117
.096
.160
.208
.177
A.D. 1225–1260
.134
.156
.188
.191
.150
.138
.137
.204
.145
.182
.206
.247
.191
.220
.158
.213
.156
.161
.086
.067
.153
.275
.176
A.D. 1260–1280
.126
.147
.174
.178
.141
.130
.127
.190
.134
.172
.191
.236
.187
.197
.146
.201
.145
.148
.079
.062
.133
.251
.165
B. Conditional Probabilities (the probability of obtaining the observed block sample if it were deposited during the given phase)
Architectural Block
Period
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500
2600
3200
3300
3400
Total Site
A.D. 1020–1060
.080
.012
.008
.024
.076
.026
.075
.037
.036
.219
.128
.004
.040
.328
.194
.215
.097
.027
.094
.292
.270
.376
.020
A.D. 1060–1100
.096
.015
.007
.017
.086
.035
.082
.042
.026
.210
.123
.000
.044
.324
.192
.216
.110
.049
.118
.265
.311
.386
.022
A.D. 1100–1140
.127
.034
.024
.035
.106
.031
.105
.062
.047
.230
.156
.005
.079
.348
.229
.242
.143
.070
.125
.294
.327
.395
.047
A.D. 1140–1180
.112
.037
.046
.054
.115
.056
.128
.079
.091
.254
.170
.015
.107
.354
.245
.233
.128
.116
.169
.250
.285
.373
.061
A.D. 1180–1225
.190
.124
.123
.196
.044
.136
.105
.234
.182
.316
.281
.069
.225
.477
.272
.313
.220
.236
.134
.225
.325
.461
.195
A.D. 1225–1260
.160
.114
.107
.190
.038
.115
.083
.232
.185
.354
.301
.101
.217
.476
.248
.319
.194
.215
.105
.211
.295
.505
.185
A.D. 1260–1280
.143
.084
.140
.217
.076
.074
.074
.244
.149
.351
.286
.148
.181
.469
.228
.297
.161
.214
.087
.199
.278
.499
.147
C. Posterior Probabilities (the probability of sherd deposition in each block area during each phase)
Architectural Block
Period
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500
2600
3200
3300
3400
Total Site
A.D. 1020–1060
.059
.020
.007
.015
.111
.045
.100
.018
.038
.069
.036
.003
.023
.034
.086
.060
.062
.018
.123
.200
.108
.035
.016
A.D. 1060–1100
.127
.031
.009
.013
.161
.075
.127
.023
.032
.081
.046
.000
.031
.056
.103
.067
.096
.047
.191
.219
.153
.054
.024
A.D. 1100–1140
.170
.079
.041
.034
.215
.072
.181
.044
.069
.097
.079
.006
.066
.088
.148
.093
.142
.073
.206
.243
.166
.065
.058
A.D. 1140–1180
.112
.080
.074
.056
.203
.117
.202
.064
.134
.110
.095
.022
.090
.106
.154
.099
.114
.110
.222
.155
.126
.067
.074
A.D. 1180–1225
.233
.324
.304
.300
.095
.320
.170
.277
.289
.213
.245
.191
.282
.255
.200
.223
.241
.288
.128
.082
.173
.208
.312
A.D. 1225–1260
.164
.277
.255
.283
.074
.231
.120
.290
.251
.222
.266
.325
.280
.245
.168
.244
.195
.242
.074
.054
.150
.300
.295
A.D. 1260–1280
.136
.190
.310
.301
.141
.140
.100
.284
.188
.208
.234
.454
.228
.216
.142
.215
.150
.222
.056
.047
.123
.271
.221
Copyright © 2003 by Crow Canyon Archaeological Center. All rights reserved.